As an experiment and
for fun, I decided to start a real money buy and hold dividend stock portfolio,
with an initial amount of $200 and an additional $50 every two weeks. I thought
it would be interesting to see how the portfolio value and dividend amounts
will grow over time. It will also show how anyone interested in dividend growth
investing can get started with a small amount of money.
If the portfolio is all you are interested in, scroll
all the way down to the bottom to see the holdings and sector allocations.
There are a couple
of reasons I haven't done this earlier with real money: trading fees and the
difficulty of buying fractional shares.
Trading Fees
Trading fees
vaporize returns from small investment amounts because they amount to a large
percentage of the overall asset purchase. When you buy a stock or ETF* at a broker that charges a commission, your
investment has to go up twice the commission amount for you to break even. For
small investment amounts this is cost prohibitive.
For example, suppose
you have $50 to invest, you want to buy stock XYZ, which costs $40 per share,
and your broker charges you a commission of $4.95 each time you buy or sell.
You can buy 1 share of XYZ. With the commission, your total upfront cost is $44.95.
If you ever sell XYZ, you'll be charged another $4.95. So for you to break even
on the trade, XYZ has to go up not only the $4.95 that you paid the broker to
buy it, but also the $4.95 that you'll pay to sell. That's a total of $9.90.
The stock has to go up from $40 to 49.90 per share for you to break even, or
24.75%. That is no way to invest, but it is a great way to lose money.
The common rule of
thumb is that broker commissions should be no more than 1% of the total amount
you invested, so that your stock or ETF holding only has to go up 1% for you to
break even. So, if the broker charges $4.95 on each leg of the trade, for it to
be worth it you should be buying at least $990 worth of the stock or ETF. If
you can only stash away $50 from every paycheck or $100 per month, saving up
that $990 would take you around 10 months. Not only would your money not be
working for you all that time, in the end you'd only be able to buy one
holding. Not cool.
*Note that most
brokers now offer numerous ETFs that can be bought and sold without paying a
commission. That is great. The problem is that nothing stops the broker from
terminating its agreement with one ETF family in favor of another, or getting
rid of commission free ETFs completely. For example, TDAmeritrade used to offer
Vanguard ETFs commission free. They don't anymore. Any broker can do this with
any ETF family or individual ETF. So it's possible that you will have to pay
commissions to sell ETFs that you originally bought commission free. Because of this, small individual ETF
positions are not advisable even if they are commission free (e.g., 1 share of
SPY, 1 share of VIG, 1 share of IJR, etc. However, taking advantage of a
commission free ETF to build a large holding over time is a great way to go, as
by the time you sell, the trading fee will be a negligible percentage of your
total trade.
Fractional Shares
For the longest
time, most brokers have not allowed fractional share purchases apart from
automatic dividend reinvestments. In other words, every trade you make must be
in whole shares. There was Sharebuilder, that did allow fractional shares, but
after being sold from ING to Capital One and most recently to E*TRADE, as far
as I know it no longer offers that ability.
Being able to buy
fractional shares helps when you have small amounts to invest. Suppose again
that you have $50 to invest and that your broker does not charge commissions or
you are buying an ETF that your broker offers commission free. (Robinhood and Firstrade,
for example, don't charge trading fees.)
If you want to buy a
stock or ETF that trades over $50 per share and your broker only allows you to
trade whole shares, you can't buy it until it drops or splits to $50 or under,
or you get more money to invest. Some stocks and ETFs worth having will likely
never drop to $50 per share, so that would mean you would either have to wait
for more money to come in or never buy that stock or ETF. If you choose to wait
for more money, that means the money you have available to invest now is not
working for you immediately. It also means you can't invest in anything else
while you are saving up for the purchase.
On the other hand,
were a broker to allow you to buy fractional shares, then you could take that
same $50 and buy 0.33 shares of a stock or ETF that trades for $150, or 0.25
shares or a stock that trades for $200, or buy half of two stocks that each
trade for $25.
Enter M1 Finance
Now there's a broker
that both doesn't charge commissions and allows fractional share purchases.
This is perfect for small investors that want to build their portfolios over
the long term. M1 Finance has been around since 2015, but I've only heard of
them two weeks ago. Better late than never, I guess.
I figured I would
start an individual stock dividend portfolio and in the process learn more
about M1 Finance so I can write a review later.
Portfolio Construction
I am a big believer
in the notion that stock prices and performance are often divorced from the
underlying company's performance. A company can be doing great, but that
doesn't mean its stock price will rise. It might fall--a lot. A company can be
doing poorly, and its stock price can rise. That doesn't seem correct, but it's
true. Otherwise, go find terrible companies and buy puts on them or short them
(profit from the stock price going down).
If it's easy, you'll make tons of money. I assure you it's not easy.
That's why I prefer
dividends. While they are never 100% reliable, dividends are much more reliable
than stock price appreciation. Whether it's a bull or bear market, as long as
the company is doing well, you'll get your dividend payment. If the company does
really well, it might raise its dividend.
I am also not a big
fan of stock research. It is a waste of time. Just look at all the analysts
that make buy, sell, and hold calls, and the talking heads on the financial
channels. They're right about half the time (less, actually), and they're
experts that do this investing stuff for a living. If reading 10Qs made you
rich, everyone would be a stock market billionaire. Also, research only tells
you about what happened in the past. It can portend the future, but that
doesn't mean the past will repeat itself. And most likely, all that good stuff
from that past is baked into the price.
That's why I like to
buy not a few, but a lot of stocks. Some of the companies will do great, many
will do average, some will go out of business. Which ones will be which? No one
knows and it's a waste of time trying to figure it out.
So why individual
stocks and not an ETF? ETFs are great and are suitable for most investors. But
here are a few reasons. For one, I think this is more fun to play with
individual stocks. Also, you can pick the ETF, but you can't pick its holdings
or its holdings' weight. Most ETFs are market cap weighed, so the largest
companies take up the biggest share of the ETF portfolio. There's arguably
nothing wrong with that and may in fact be the right approach.
However, the ETF's
performance and the dividends it spits out pretty much mimics the performance
and dividends of its largest holdings.
For example, Columbia Sportswear (COLM) is less than 0.01% of the
iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF's (DGRO) portfolio. Is there really a point
for DGRO to hold COLM? Columbia Sportswear can triple in price and quadruple
its dividend. Holders of DGRO would never know because that increase in DGRO's
share price and dividend amount wouldn't be distinguishable from its daily
price fluctuations. But if any of DGRO's top holdings tripled, you would see it
right away.
That's why I ignore
market caps in the portfolio. Every stock is pretty much equally weighted (I
tried to make them exactly equal, but M1 Finance didn't let me. It's close
enough, though).
Third, ETFs charge
management fees. Yes, these are really small, but if you don't have to pay
them, why should you?
I set about choosing
stocks in the portfolio by looking at the holdings of DGRO (this was used as a
quality screen--the ETF holds companies that have at least five years of
uninterrupted dividend increases and pay out less than 75% of earnings) and
selecting the ones that had a dividend yield between 2.5% and 7%. (The dividend
yield is the expected annualized dividend payment per share divided by the
share price.) Unfortunately, and after I spent hours entering my selections
into my M1 "pie", I found out that the portfolio is limited to 100
individual holdings. Hopefully M1 will allow more in the future.
I whittled my list
down to 90 something, then added a few non-US stocks from the telecom, health
care, and energy sectors, for a total of 100 stocks. I might replace some
holdings with others in the future, or add new ones if/when M1 allows. For
example, many companies that should probably be a part of a dividend portfolio
aren't included in this one for the above reasons, like McDonald's (MCD),
Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Apple (AAPL). Their lower dividend yield didn't let
them make the cut. While I was tempted to put them in anyway, I decided to
stick with the mechanical rules and disregard my personal preferences and
biases.
The Portfolio
Disclaimer: Buy at
your own risk. You will lose money!
Now that that is out
of the way, here is the almost equally weighted portfolio, with each holding
comprising around 1% of the total. (The weightings will change as the stock
prices wobble.)
Initial Value: $200
Holdings: 100
Dividend Yield:
3.612%
Sector
|
Percent
of Portfolio
|
Real
Estate
|
5
|
Utilities
|
12
|
Tech
|
4
|
Industrials
|
10
|
Health
Care
|
10
|
Financials
|
12
|
Communications
|
7
|
Basic
Materials
|
2
|
Consumer
Staples
|
14
|
Consumer
Discretionary
|
13
|
Energy
|
11
|
TICKER
|
COMPANY
|
ABBV
|
AbbVie
Inc.
|
ADM
|
Archer-Daniels-Midland
Company
|
AES
|
The
AES Corporation
|
ALV
|
Autoliv
Inc.
|
AMGN
|
Amgen
Inc.
|
AXS
|
Axis
Capital Holdings Limited
|
AZN
|
Astrazeneca
PLC
|
BCE
|
BCE
Inc.
|
BEN
|
Franklin
Resources Inc.
|
BF.B
|
Brown
Forman Inc Class B
|
BG
|
Bunge
Limited
|
BIG
|
Big
Lots Inc.
|
BMY
|
Bristol-Myers
Squibb Company
|
BOKF
|
BOK
Financial Corporation
|
BP
|
BP
p.l.c.
|
BUD
|
Anheuser-Busch
Inbev SA Sponsored ADR (Belgium)
|
CAT
|
Caterpillar
Inc.
|
CBU
|
Community
Bank System Inc.
|
CCI
|
Crown
Castle International Corp. (REIT)
|
CFR
|
Cullen/Frost
Bankers Inc.
|
CHA
|
China
Telecom Corp Ltd ADS
|
CHL
|
China
Mobile Limited
|
CLX
|
Clorox
Company (The)
|
CNP
|
CenterPoint
Energy Inc (Holding Co)
|
CSCO
|
Cisco
Systems Inc.
|
CVX
|
Chevron
Corporation
|
D
|
Dominion
Energy Inc.
|
DKS
|
Dick's
Sporting Goods Inc
|
DLR
|
Digital
Realty Trust Inc.
|
EAT
|
Brinker
International Inc.
|
ED
|
Consolidated
Edison Inc.
|
EMR
|
Emerson
Electric Company
|
ENB
|
Enbridge
Inc
|
EVR
|
Evercore
Inc. Class A
|
EVRG
|
Evergy
Inc.
|
FAST
|
Fastenal
Company
|
FL
|
Foot
Locker Inc.
|
GILD
|
Gilead
Sciences Inc.
|
GSK
|
GlaxoSmithKline
PLC
|
GT
|
The
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company
|
HBI
|
Hanesbrands
Inc.
|
HOG
|
Harley-Davidson
Inc.
|
HUBB
|
Hubbell
Inc
|
IBM
|
International
Business Machines Corporation
|
INGR
|
Ingredion
Incorporated
|
INTC
|
Intel
|
ITW
|
Illinois
Tool Works Inc.
|
JCI
|
Johnson
Controls International plc
|
JNJ
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
JPM
|
JP
Morgan Chase & Co.
|
K
|
Kellogg
Company
|
KO
|
Coca-Cola
|
KR
|
Kroger
Company (The)
|
KW
|
Kennedy-Wilson
Holdings Inc.
|
LEG
|
Leggett
& Platt Incorporated
|
MDU
|
MDU
Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company)
|
MMM
|
3M
Company
|
MPC
|
Marathon
Petroleum Corporation
|
MS
|
Morgan
Stanley
|
MSM
|
MSC
Industrial Direct Company Inc.
|
NFG
|
National
Fuel Gas Company
|
NGG
|
National
Grid Transco PLC PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares
|
NUE
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
NUS
|
Nu
Skin Enterprises Inc.
|
NVS
|
Novartis
AG
|
NWE
|
NorthWestern
Corporation
|
O
|
Realty
Income Corporation
|
OGE
|
OGE
Energy Corp
|
ORAN
|
Orange
|
OXY
|
Occidental
Petroleum Corporation
|
PAG
|
Penske
Automotive Group Inc.
|
PB
|
Prosperity
Bancshares Inc.
|
PEG
|
Public
Service Enterprise Group Incorporated
|
PEP
|
PepsiCo
Inc.
|
PFE
|
Pfizer
Inc.
|
PG
|
Procter
& Gamble Company (The)
|
PSX
|
Phillips
66
|
PTR
|
PetroChina
Company Limited
|
RDS.B
|
Royal
Dutch Shell PLC American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Class B)
|
RHI
|
Robert
Half International Inc.
|
SJI
|
South
Jersey Industries Inc.
|
SJM
|
J.M.
Smucker Company (The)
|
SLB
|
Schlumberger
N.V.
|
SNY
|
Sanofi
|
SON
|
Sonoco
Products Company
|
SPG
|
Simon
Property Group Inc.
|
T
|
AT&T
|
TD
|
Toronto
Dominion Bank (The)
|
TGT
|
Target
Corporation
|
TOT
|
Total
S.A.
|
TROW
|
T.
Rowe Price Group Inc.
|
TXN
|
Texas
Instruments Incorporated
|
UPS
|
United
Parcel Service Inc.
|
VOD
|
Vodafone
Group Plc
|
VZ
|
Verizon
Communications Inc.
|
WABC
|
Westamerica
Bancorporation
|
WBA
|
Walgreens
Boots Alliance Inc.
|
WHR
|
Whirlpool
Corporation
|
WYND
|
Wyndham
Destinations Inc. Common Stock
|
XOM
|
Exxon
Mobil Corporation
|
The Plan
Add $50 every two
weeks and watch this little seed become a tree. Any stock spin-offs will be kept, even if they pay no dividends, unless M1 Financial sells them automatically (it's not clear what will happen to the 100 holding limitation).
Benchmark
Every portfolio
needs a benchmark to see how poorly one is doing. As of this post, the closing
price of the S&P 500, as tracked by the SPDR ETF SPY closed at $293.64 on
6/24/19 and an initial $200 investment into it would buy 0.6811 shares. Future benchmark investments will be based on the closing price of SPY on the day the real-money $50 contribution has all its orders filled.